Solar to be the #1 Energy Source? Well...
Recently Shell reseales its new lense scenarios:
The first scenario, labelled “mountains”, sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.
The second scenario, which we call “oceans”, describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2060s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source.
Source: Shell Scenarios
In other words, what I understand is this:
1) If Government policies decide the future, natural gas is the mainstay
2) If market forces decide the future, solar is the mainstay
I think, this view make sense as Governments accros the world are likely to be controlled by oil and engine lobbies, that will allow the pendulum to swing slightly beyond coal, oil to gas at the most and then go for expensive carbon capture and storage/sequestration. But in a free economy, where innovation and improvements (costs, efficiency, reliability) in new energy options are not hampered, renewable energy such as Solar will be clear winner.
This puts things in a much clearer perspective for me, thanks for these scenarios Shell. (Metaphorically speaking) Mountains, don't move fast and don't take risks while Oceans keep things fluid and take worthwhile risks for a better future. Conventional energy seems to be steadily climbing the economic mountains while ''throwing down" occasional hints of environmental consciousness into the oceans. After reaching the mountain peak (remember the term "peak oil"), we might realize the lost chances for conserving far more species and better environment for the future generations, following us below.
Renewable energy like Solar is in the Oceans, riding the high waves of uncertainties and ocassionally hitting stubborn mountains, hoping to find a better shore for the human race. We all have a choice for the future of energy: climb mountains or ride the oceans?
Recreated from original blog post authored by Nilesh Y. Jadhav at Solarika.org